When and where will the recovery from COVID-19 start? ArrowStream is leveraging data to give the industry direction.
State authorities closed the restaurants and should lead the opening signaling that the consumer return will be regional. Given this, we’ve been monitoring the states that are faring the best with COVID-19 in a new model so the industry can anticipate the restart.
ArrowStream's COVID-19 State Ranking Model measures each states' coronavirus response and risk suggesting the potential of where restaurants could return to a closer-to-normal business environment first and provide clues into supply chain disruption. Several variables are considered to make up the top 15 rankings and we will update the model on a weekly basis given how quickly the landscape is changing. Find the latest Ranking Model on our COVID-19 Resource Center.
ArrowStream's David Maloni explains in more detail how to use and read the model in the below video:
Find the latest Ranking Model on our COVID-19 Resource Center.
These top 15 states represent just 11% of 2018 annual restaurant sales. The four biggest markets include California (13.6%), Texas (9.2%), Florida (7%), and New York (7.2%), and represent a total of 37% of 2018 total U.S. restaurant sales. At the moment, Texas (16 in ranking) is the only major market close to being in the top 15.
States shaded in light blue are ranking to open soonest, while those shaded darker blue are ranking to open later.
Below is a more detailed look at the top 15 in order.
|
State |
Restaurants # (2018) |
Restaurant Sales (2018, Mill) |
Share of Total Restaurants |
Share of Total Sales |
|
Hawaii |
3,665 |
5,600 |
0.57% |
0.78% |
|
West Virginia |
3,291 |
2,800 |
0.52% |
0.39% |
|
North Dakota |
1,736 |
1,400 |
0.27% |
0.20% |
|
New Mexico |
3,468 |
4,000 |
0.54% |
0.56% |
|
South Dakota |
1,878 |
1,500 |
0.29% |
0.21% |
|
Wyoming |
1,338 |
1,100 |
0.21% |
0.15% |
|
Alaska |
1,485 |
1,800 |
0.23% |
0.25% |
|
Oregon |
10,456 |
9,700 |
1.64% |
1.36% |
|
Utah |
5,264 |
5,500 |
0.82% |
0.77% |
|
Minnesota |
10,681 |
10,700 |
1.67% |
1.50% |
|
Montana |
2,831 |
2,300 |
0.44% |
0.32% |
|
North Carolina |
19,504 |
21,400 |
3.06% |
3.00% |
|
Arizona |
10,281 |
14,700 |
1.61% |
2.06% |
|
Nebraska |
4,113 |
3,300 |
0.64% |
0.46% |
|
Vermont |
1,413 |
1,100 |
0.22% |
0.15% |
|
Wisconsin |
12,796 |
10,100 |
2.00% |
1.41% |
Find the latest Ranking Model on our COVID-19 Resource Center.