ArrowStream Foodservice Blog

ArrowStream COVID-19 State Ranking Model to Signal Restaurant Openings and the Return of the Consumer

Posted by Kate Hubbard on Apr 10, 2020 11:21:22 AM

When and where will the recovery from COVID-19 start? ArrowStream is leveraging data to give the industry direction.

State authorities closed the restaurants and should lead the opening signaling that the consumer return will be regional. Given this, we’ve been monitoring the states that are faring the best with COVID-19 in a new model so the industry can anticipate the restart.

ArrowStream's COVID-19 State Ranking Model measures each states' coronavirus response and risk suggesting the potential of where restaurants could return to a closer-to-normal business environment first and provide clues into supply chain disruption. Several variables are considered to make up the top 15 rankings and we will update the model on a weekly basis given how quickly the landscape is changing. Find the latest Ranking Model on our COVID-19 Resource Center.

ArrowStream's David Maloni explains in more detail how to use and read the model in the below video:

COVID-19 State Ranking Model - April 10

Find the latest Ranking Model on our COVID-19 Resource Center.

These top 15 states represent just 11% of 2018 annual restaurant sales. The four biggest markets include California (13.6%), Texas (9.2%), Florida (7%), and New York (7.2%), and represent a total of 37% of 2018 total U.S. restaurant sales. At the moment, Texas (16 in ranking) is the only major market close to being in the top 15.

State Model April 9

States shaded in light blue are ranking to open soonest, while those shaded darker blue are ranking to open later.

Below is a more detailed look at the top 15 in order.

State

Restaurants # (2018)

 Restaurant Sales (2018, Mill)

 Share of Total Restaurants

 Share of Total Sales

Hawaii

3,665

5,600

0.57%

0.78%

West Virginia

3,291

2,800

0.52%

0.39%

North Dakota

1,736

1,400

0.27%

0.20%

New Mexico

3,468

4,000

0.54%

0.56%

South Dakota

1,878

1,500

0.29%

0.21%

Wyoming

1,338

1,100

0.21%

0.15%

Alaska

1,485

1,800

0.23%

0.25%

Oregon

10,456

9,700

1.64%

1.36%

Utah

5,264

5,500

0.82%

0.77%

Minnesota

10,681

10,700

1.67%

1.50%

Montana

2,831

2,300

0.44%

0.32%

North Carolina

19,504

21,400

3.06%

3.00%

Arizona

10,281

14,700

1.61%

2.06%

Nebraska

4,113

3,300

0.64%

0.46%

Vermont

1,413

1,100

0.22%

0.15%

Wisconsin

12,796

10,100

2.00%

1.41%

 

Find the latest Ranking Model on our COVID-19 Resource Center.

 

COVID-19 Resource Center for Foodservice

 

ArrowStream's sole priority as a leader and partner in the foodservice space has been, and continues to be, providing our customers and network with the tools, data and resources to help professionals prepare, stay updated and make necessary business decisions.

As we look to answering questions short-term and planning for long-term recovery, we encourage all to visit our Resource Center.

 

Visit our COVID-19 Resource Center

 

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