Confirmed COVID-19 cases are on the rise in several U.S. states, including three of the four largest restaurant states. California, Florida, New York and Texas typically account for 37 percent of annual U.S. restaurant sales and over the last week, ArrowStream economists have closely tracked an increase in positive test results in California, Florida and Texas. 

"We think it’s important to discuss that the COVID-19 story is not over. And as the chart shows, the number of cases in three of the big four restaurant states is on the rise. We do agree that hospitalizations and deaths are more important data points now, but the rising number of cases speaks to the story not being over. The good news is that hospitalizations and deaths are relatively stable to lower across these states, but this will be important to monitor in the coming weeks, especially in Florida and Texas."