ArrowStream Foodservice Blog

ArrowStream's economists noted in the Maloni Report this week that chicken production has been strong, with the six-week total tracking over 8 percent above year-ago levels. However, while they believe that's expected to continue into the spring, they also warn there is reason for caution. 

Despite restaurant retail sales being up 4.9 percent from the previous year, menu prices up 3.1 percent, and traffic higher by 1.8 percent, industry growth appears to be slowing with the 12-month traffic gain the smallest since spring 2018. Further, restaurants carried the smallest share of total retail sales since April. 

The premium in the food-away-from-home index (restaurants) to food-at-home index (grocery stores) is a record large.

ArrowStream economist, David Maloni, noted in this week's Maloni Report that the U.S. November beef imports were better than expected, up 10.6 percent from prior year.

Adverse early-fall weather caused significant damage to the fall potato crop in the U.S. However, David Maloni, ArrowStream's chief economist has said, "the USDA won’t provide an updated output forecast until January 10, 2020."

ArrowStream economists noted this week that U.S. October beef imports were up slightly from the prior year.

October pork belly disappearance (consumption and exports) was 4 percent better than prior year, while total pork disappearance was up 4.9 percent.

ArrowStream economists noted this week that October's restaurant traffic in the U.S. was nothing to get excited about, up just .8 percent from the prior year.

"As the chart shows, year-over-year restaurant traffic has been below trend-line growth for the last several months," said David Maloni, ArrowStream's chief economist. "Sure, we are going up against some big comparable months when delivery was taking off last year. However, this should be watched closely."

This week David Maloni, ArrowStream economist, noted that several times this fall, the data seems to indicate that the top in the U.S. cattle herd has occurred.

ArrowStream economist, David Maloni, reported this week that the USDA is forecasting China to import an additional 1.9 billion pounds of pork in 2020 due to African Swine Fever, noting that more than one third is expected to come from the U.S.