In a recent post, David Maloni, ArrowStream's commodity expert, noted that June retail sales for foodservice and drinking establishments (restaurants) were 4 percent higher than the previous year. Even though that is considerable, it remains the smallest annual gain in the last 15 months. Further, the year-over-year gain in June restaurant traffic at just .9 percent was the smallest since January 2018.
"Perhaps this is due to higher menu prices," said Maloni. "During the month, menu prices were 3.1 percent higher vs. 2018, matching the biggest gain in nearly 11 years. Now part of this is due to higher labor costs and the rise in delivery for the industry. But the lackluster traffic growth raises concerns about the industry’s ability to continue to raise menu prices with this intensity."