ArrowStream Foodservice Blog

There’s no doubt that an ever-changing foodservice environment creates additional, unwelcomed supply chain challenges for restaurant chain operators, and many are discovering that what used to work is no longer enough to thrive in a modern foodservice environment. 

ArrowStream economists have been closely monitoring dairy prices, specifically cheese, over the last few months during the pandemic. In the most recent issue of the Maloni Report, they discussed the decline in the cheese market. 

Due to COVID-19, the U.S. faces food supply chain disruptions and changes in consumer demand, take a deeper dive into the hurdles faced by our industry.

ArrowStream economists note that although there’s been some modest price softness for cheese blocks recently, this market, along with the cheese barrel market, remains historically inflated. 

ArrowStream economists reported that restaurant sale trends appear to be improving, but while the industry may be recovering, it still falls behind other business segments. 

Last Friday, the USDA released a plethora of data important to the restaurant industry. While ArrowStream economists weren't surprised on grains expectations, they did comment on the increase of protein supply expectations. 

Analysis of ArrowStream’s network of more than 200 chain restaurant brands by our economists revealed June data which signaled that the overall restaurant industry continues to slowly improve, but remains below year-ago levels. However, with states confirming recent increases in COVID-19 cases, action is being taken again to curb the spread which may further slow the improvement we have seen. 

In mid-June, ArrowStream's economists published initial data noting a rise in COVID-19 cases among three of the four largest restaurant states. And as the trend continues, they called out in the most recent issue of ArrowStream's Maloni Report that they're closely watching the mortality rate which, if it rises following the increase in hospitalizations, could mean those states may revisit more permanent social restrictions.

As the economy continues to adjust to the global pandemic, it's become clear that certain segments are improving faster than others. While foodservice and drinking establishment sales saw a 29 percent increase in May from April, unfortunately, we continue to see the restaurant industry making minimal gains and falling behind in overall recovery. At a 39 percent decline in sales from this time last year, ArrowStream economists analyzed U.S. retail sales and note where restaurants currently sit.

Confirmed COVID-19 cases are on the rise in several U.S. states, including three of the four largest restaurant states. California, Florida, New York and Texas typically account for 37 percent of annual U.S. restaurant sales and over the last week, ArrowStream economists have closely tracked an increase in positive test results in California, Florida and Texas.